1.南シナ海問題の緊迫化 海洋安全保障は、海賊や国境を越える犯罪の取り

1.南シナ海問題の緊迫化
海洋安全保障は、海賊や国境を越える犯罪の取り締まり、テロリズム対策、そして海域に関する国境を巡る対立の緩和など、幅広い分野の諸問題への対応を含む。海洋安全保障は以前から東アジアの平和と安定にとって最重要課題の一つであった、近年、特に東アジアの国際環境を大きく揺るがせているのが南シナ海の領有権問題を巡る各国の対立である。この問題を巡っての対立と緊張は以前に比べて緊迫の度合いを強めている。中国、ブルネイ、マレーシア、フィリピン、ベトナムおよび台湾は、それぞれ一部の島や岩礁への実効支配を伴う形で同海域における領有権の主張を行ってきた。特に中国は、九段線で大きく囲んだ南シナ海域を自国の領域であると主張してきた。
さらに現在特に問題とされているのが、中国によるスプラトリー諸島において大規模な埋め立てを敢行し、軍事施設の建設を行っていることである。米国の戦略国際問題研究所（ＣＳＩＳ）内のアジア海洋透明性イニシアチブ（Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative：ＡＭＴＩ）が今年５月に行った発表によると、中国が推進している埋め立ては推計９０万平方メートルとされる 。また、中国のみならずベトナムも埋め立てを行っていると言われる。ＡＭＴＩによれば、ベトナムも西ロンドン礁を６万５０００平方メートル、サンド岩礁を２万１０００平方メートル、計８万６０００平方メートルを埋め立てたとされる。しかしながら、その規模において、中国との差は歴然としている。
そして今年１０月２７日、米国は、駆逐艦「ラッセン」を中国の人工島やベトナムやフィリピンが実効支配する岩礁の１２カイリ内を航行させるという「航行の自由作戦」を敢行した。アメリカがラッセンを中国の人工島近海のみならず中国以外の係争国が実効支配する岩礁付近も航行させたのは、対中けん制という印象を弱め、「航行の自由」の重要性を強調する作戦であるという立場を示すためであった。しかしながら、埋め立てその他の南シナ海での諸活動の規模の違いを勘案すれば、米国が最も警戒するのは、中国であることは明白であり、中国は「航行の自由」作戦に強い反発を示した 。その直後開催されたASEAN防衛大臣会合プラス（ADMM+）、１１月下旬に開催されたASEAN首脳会議他のASEAN関連会議の場でも、南シナ海問題を巡る参加国の対立や立場の違いがそれらの場での議論の内容を大きく規定したのである。

2. 米中がすべてを決定するのか
アメリカおよび中国が南シナ海でどのような行動をするかは、確かに南シナ海問題及びおよびこの海域での海洋安全保障を大きく規定することは否定できない。しかしながら、この二国は、東アジアにおいて単独で覇権を確立し、南シナ海問題を含め、安全保障環境を自分の望ましい方向に決定づける力は、一般的に考えられているよりも制限されている。まず、米中は相互に牽制し合っているが故に、それぞれが自国の主張を十分に現実に反映することが難しい。また、中国は確かに経済力を増大させ、軍事力も増強させているが、いわゆるソフト・パワーには欠けており、近隣諸国における中国の影響力増大に対する反発も根強い。よって中国と近隣諸国との関係は不安定である。また、アメリカのアジアへのコミットメント継続には財政的な制約が科せられている。
もし、この両国が南シナ海その他の対立を巡って決定的に対立し、どちらかの影響力排除に軍事力を伴う形で乗り出し、武力紛争が発生するという事態になるなら、ASEAN諸国をはじめとして他の国々はどうすることもできないだろう。しかしながら、米中がそのような決定的な対立状況に至ることは考えにくい。アメリカが「航行の自由」作戦を実行した際に、中国以外の国の実効支配する岩礁の１２海里以内にもラッセンを航行させたのも、アメリカが決定的な対立を避けているからである。また、本年１１月アメリカの艦船が中国海軍と合同軍事訓練を行うために上海に寄港した。両国は慎重に対立のエスカレーションを避けていると見受けられる。
また逆に、米中両国との間での「妥協」が成立し、例えばアメリカが中国の領有権主張を事実上認めるような事態になったとしても、ASEAN諸国の当該問題についての影響力は減ぜられてしまうだろう。しかしこれは、特に係争国を中心とするASEAN諸国の一部や、東シナ海で領有権問題についての意見対立を抱える日本からの反発を招く。また、明らかに海洋国際法に違反する行動を許容することは、アメリカのソフト・パワーを著しく損ないことになるだろう。
このように、米中の決定的対立、また他の国々の主張を無視するような形での米中の妥協の成立、いずれのシナリオも実現しそうにない。そうした中で、実は鍵を握るのがASEAN諸国の動向である。注意深く見ていると、南シナ海問題を巡る対立が激化する中で、ASEAN諸国は、米中との関係をそれぞれ強化しつつ、両国との関係をそれぞれ保ちバランスを取ることで、自らの影響力を確保するという戦略を基本的には継続している。
中国側が様々な批判を受けながらも埋め立てを継続しているのは事実である。しかし今年６月、中国への非難が集中した時期に「埋め立て作業は完了した」として反発を避けようとしたことに留意すべきである。むろん、実際には中国の埋め立てが完了していないという指摘はなされている。しかしながら、もし国際的批判をまったく気にせず中国が埋め立てを敢行するつもりならば、このような言い訳もしなかっただろう。よって、アメリカやその他の諸国があくまでも中国側の行動に反対する姿勢は、中国が現状を一方的に変えようとする行動に対する一定の抑制効果を持っている。中国との関係を決定的に悪化させることなく、また中国に完全に従うのでもなく、その上で南シナ海問題について、武力不行使、紛争の平和的解決、航行の自由といった基本的な規範を主張し続けることは、ASEAN諸国にとって事態を動かすための重要な戦略の一つとなる。

３．ASEANのバランス戦略の継続
大国に翻弄（ほんろう）されているように見えて、そのはざまで外交を駆使して生き延びる経験を積んできたＡＳＥＡＮ諸国はしたたかである。ＡＳＥＡＮ諸国は、状況を見ながら米中双方との関係強化を図っている。アメリカとの安全保障上の関係は従来から深かったASEAN原加盟国である５カ国は、近年いっそうその関係の強化を図っている。例えばアメリカとインドネシアは、２００２年のバリ爆破事件以後に軍事協力が強化されてきたが、２０１０年には政治・安全保障分野の協力も盛り込んだ米インドネシア包括的連携協定が結ばれた。２０１５年にはジョコ新政権とアメリカとの間でも防衛協力の一層の強化で合意している 。アメリカとマレーシアとの関係も対テロリズムの観点から強化され、２００５年５月には物品役務相互協定（ACSA）が締結された後、近年さらにアメリカとの防衛協力関係を強化している。2015年5月には米マレーシアでの南シナ海に置ける合同軍事訓練が行われた 。
他方、多くのASEAN諸国は、２０００年代以降、中国とも安全保障協力を進めている。２００２年に中国ASEAN戦略的パートナーシップが締結された後、これに依拠する形で、ASEAN各国と中国との二国間の個別の安全保障協力が進展した。例えばタイは、中国と、合同訓練や合同軍事演習、訓示演習の相互視察や教育交流などによる安全保障協力を進展させている。シンガポールと中国も、２００８年１月から年次防衛政策対話を開始して中国との協力が進められている。また、インドネシアと中国は、２００５年4月に戦略的パートナーシップを締結した。中国とマレーシア間でも、２００５年９月に「防衛に関する覚書」を締結済みである。さらに、中国はAIIBの提唱を始め、インフラ整備支援を強化する姿勢を近隣諸国に対して見せている。インフラ整備自体は安全保障協力とは言えないが、それも含む幅広い分野の懸案についての中国の立場の「受け入れ」を図るための手段でもあると広く理解されている。
ASEAN諸国の中でもベトナムは、その地理的位置と、南シナ海を巡る中国との対立を抱えるという状況下、アメリカとも中国とも連携強化を図ってバランスを取っている点で興味深い。ベトナムとアメリカは２０１０年８月に初の米ベトナム防衛対話や海軍軍事演習が行われた後、アメリカとの関係を強化している。他方、中国とベトナムは防衛協議を２００５年から行い、特に高官交流強化や非伝統的安全保障分野における協力の拡大等を主眼とした協力を進展させている。昨年５月に、ベトナムの排他的経済水域（EEZ）における中国の石油掘削によって中越間が緊張し、またその後中国の大規模な埋め立てに対する不信感が強まる中でも、ベトナムのバランス戦略は継続されている。例えば、今年６月にはカーター米国防長官、８月にはケリー米国務長官がベトナムを訪問し、またベトナム最高指導者のグエン・フー・チョン共産党書記長が今年７月に米国を初訪問し、南シナ海問題についての協議をするなど、米越関係の強化を印象づけた。しかしながら１１月、ベトナムは習近平国家主席による初訪問を受け入れた。習主席はグエン・フー・チョン書記長およびグエン・タン・ズン首相と会談し、南シナ海問題についての協議を行うと共に、中越間の経済協力について合意した。
ASEAN諸国の中でもフィリピンは対米傾斜を強めているように見える。確かに、フィリピンとアメリカは昨年アメリカ軍のフィリピンにおける展開強化を柱とする新軍事協定を締結済みではある。また、APEC首脳会議に出席するためにオバマ大統領がマニラ入りするのに合わせ、アメリカ政府派東南アジア諸国に対する海洋安全保障に関する支援強化策を打ち出したが、その支援で最も重点が置かれているのはフィリピンである。しかし新軍事協定については、元上院議員がこの協定を違憲として提訴するなど、必ずしもアメリカとの関係強化がフィリピン国内で手放しに受け入れられている訳ではない。また、来年５月に予定されている大統領選の結果が、フィリピンの今後の外交的スタンスを大きく帰る可能性がある。前アロヨ政権下では、フィリピンはむしろ中国との関係を強化しようとし、アメリカとの関係を相対化しようとしていたことを想起すべきである。
複数の大国のはざまにあって、旗幟（きし）を鮮明にはせず、それぞれの大国との関係を強化しバランスを維持することで、自らの自律性を確保するという戦略はＡＳＥＡＮ諸国のお家芸でもある。ASEAN諸国のこうした戦略の維持を可能にするのは、前述したように、米中間の決定的な対立、また米中間の「妥協」による中国の覇権の確立、いずれも可能性が低いことと、米中それぞれが一国のみで、相手を排除しつつ覇権を確立するほどには実は地域に置けるそれらの影響力が万全ではないことによる。いわば見かけよりも大国がすべての地域環境を決定づけられるような状況下にない中で、ASEAN諸国の動向はこの地域の安全保障環境のありようを大きく左右するだろう。

4.ASEANを中心とする諸制度における信頼醸成の可能性
こうした状況下で、どのように海洋安全保障に関わる信頼醸成の仕組みを作っていくべきだろうか。一つの可能性として考えられるのは、ARFやADMM+、ASEAN安全保障共同体（ASC）行動計画に基づいて２０１０年に正式に発足したASEAN海洋フォーラムA（AMF）などのASEANを制度的中心とする制度の活用である。ARFは１９９４年に発足したアジア太平洋初の政治安全保障対話・協力の枠組みであるが、以前より海洋安全保障分野の協力を重要課題として位置づけてきた。また、ＡＤＭＭプラスは、ＡＳＥＡＮ政治・安全保障共同体の構築を進めるための機関として新たに設置されたＡＳＥＡＮ国防相会議（ＡＤＭＭ）に、主要な域外国である米国、中国、日本、韓国、インド、オーストラリア、ニュージーランド、ロシアの国防相を招待する形で、２０１０年に発足した。ＡＤＭＭプラスは、緊迫する南シナ海問題に関する「役者たち」が全てそろった制度である。
今年１１月初旬に開催された東南アジア諸国連合（ＡＳＥＡＮ）拡大国防相会議（ＡＤＭＭプラス）第３回会合において

Kết quả (Anh) 1:

1. of the tension in the South China Sea issue Maritime security, including addressing issues of conflict over a border crackdown on piracy and transnational crime, terrorism, and the waters of a wide range of areas. Marine security in recent years was, in one single most important challenge for the peace and stability of East Asia, particularly large rattled East Asia's international environment is South in the confrontation over the China Sea territorial rights issue. Conflict over this issue and the tension is increasingly compared to the previous degree of urgency. China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Viet Nam and Taiwan has been with effective control of some islands and reefs in territorial claims in the region. Especially China, 9-South China Sea area in large enclosed in their territories and have been claimed. More by going to the construction of military facilities, and dared a massive landfill in the Spratly Islands by China currently has been especially problematic. 900000 m estimate is landfill being promoted by China, according to the announcement made in May this year for strategic international studies (CSIS) in the United States in Asia Ocean transparency initiative (Asia-Maritime Transparency Initiative:AMTI). In addition, said China as well as Viet Nam going to landfill. According to the AMTI, Viet Nam also West London reef 65000 square meters, sand reefs, 21000 square meters, total 86000 square meter reclaimed; However, in its scale, is the difference between China and. And 10/27, a United States destroyer "Lassen" artificial island in China and Viet Nam and the Philippines over reefs 12 to operation of navigational freedom to sail to Kairi in the. In order to indicate the position that sail up the area around the country of artificial islands near China's only non-Chinese Americans over Lassen Reef that weaken the impression that China supervision, to emphasize the importance of freedom of navigation operations. Of greatest concern to United States, however, end up in landfills, taking into account differences in the scale of the activities in the other South China Sea by China is obvious, and China showed a strong rebound in the freedom of navigation operations. Among participating countries over the South China Sea issue at ASEAN-related meetings other ASEAN leaders meeting was held shortly after ASEAN defense Ministers meeting plus (ADMM +), held on 11 November, the confrontation and standpoint differences greatly ruled the contents of those discussions.2. us to decide everything? The United States and China Southern will largely determine the maritime security in the waters of the South China Sea issue and this certainly cannot be denied or what action at sea,. However, two countries, power in East Asia alone to establish hegemony, including the issue of South China Sea security environment in their desired direction, defining the limited than commonly thought. First, in mutually control and fit that is therefore, can each claim their own better reflect reality. Also, China has certainly increased economic power, military power increase, but lacks in the so-called soft power, remained against the increasing influence of China in the neighboring countries. By instability, the relationship between China and neighboring countries. In addition, a continued commitment to the region is fined financial constraints. If the both South China Sea would be embarked in the other conflict decisively with military force to eliminate the influence of either a form to an armed conflict situation, ASEAN countries as well as other countries can do will not be able. Reach a Sino-U.S. decisive confrontation situation, however, seems unlikely. By avoiding decisive confrontation American made sail Lassen to 12 nautical miles within the reef during freedom of navigation operations runs the United States effective control over countries outside China also. Also this year 11-ships of the United States for joint military drill with the Chinese Navy submarine in Shanghai. It is seen the two countries carefully avoiding escalation of the conflict. Also, even if contrary to the established compromise between the United States and China, for example to things American, such as virtually admit China's territorial claims it is reduced influence on the question of ASEAN countries. However this is a backlash from Japan's differences of opinion about the disputed East China Sea and part of the ASEAN countries in particular to the country. Also, to tolerate behavior that violates the international maritime law reveals more damaging to American soft power, it would be. During their form to ignore the decisive conflict in the U.S. and other countries claim the U.S. compromise enacted, either of these scenarios is likely to realize no. In doing so, hold the key to tell the truth in trends in ASEAN countries. In fierce conflict over the South China Sea issue and looking carefully at enhancing Sino-U.S. relationship, each ASEAN member countries are basically continuing strategy to keep the relationship between the two countries, respectively, to balance, to ensure their influence. Various Chinese criticism while also continuing reclamation in fact. But completed the land reclamation work during June this year concentrated on criticism of China and should be noted that it was the inevitable backlash. Of course, being pointed out is really not complete reclamation of the Chinese. However, no such excuses, if you are going to international criticism at all without worrying about the China land reclamation will. Have a certain behavior and attitude by the United States and other countries against Chinese action only China status quo unilaterally change the effect. Without definitively worsen relations with China is not fully bound to China, also on armed forces agreement on the issue of South China Sea, maintain basic norms such as the freedom of navigation and peaceful resolution of disputes that would be an important strategy for ASEAN to move one single.3. Continuation of the ASEAN's balanced strategy ASEAN powerhouse tossed (shaken) is that like look, utilizing the diplomacy in the world between survive the experience gained should be tough. ASEAN is watching the situation in the United States has been trying to strengthen relations with both sides. Security relationship with the United States that deeper ASEAN original member countries from 5 countries, in recent years more to strengthen its ties in order. For example includes cooperation in political and security areas in 2010, has strengthened military cooperation after the Bali bombings in 2002, in the United States and Indonesia, but U.S.-Indonesia comprehensive partnership agreement has been made. By 2015, agreed further strengthen defense cooperation among Djoko new regime with the United States. After the improved relationship between the United States and Malaysia in terms of counterterrorism, goods services mutual agreement (ACSA) was signed to 5/2005 tightened the defense ties in recent years and the United States. 5/2015 to be placed on rice Malaysia South China Sea joint military drill was held. On the other hand, in many ASEAN countries, since the year 2000, China and also security cooperation gearing. In 2002, China-ASEAN strategic developed separate bilateral security cooperation between ASEAN countries and China, after the partnership was concluded, relying on this form. For example Thailand is developing security cooperation by China, joint training and joint military exercises, briefing seminar for mutual visits and exchanges. Singapore and China also 1/2008 starting annual defense policy dialogue, cooperation with China is already underway. Also, Indonesia and China signed a strategic partnership on 4/2005. But China and Malaysia while defense memorandum signed in 9/2005. Further, China began to advocate AIIB, poised to strengthen infrastructure development presented itself in neighbouring countries. Ways of accepting the position of China on the issues of a wide range of fields including infrastructure construction itself isn't security cooperation, but it is also on and widely understood. ASEAN countries especially Viet Nam, its geographical location and the South situations of confrontation with China over the sea, the United States and also interesting for our cooperation with China, taking the balance. First us Viet Nam defense dialogue 8/2010 and naval military exercises followed by Viet Nam and the United States, has strengthened ties with the United States. On the other hand, China and Viet Nam are conducted from 2005 defence talks, are making progress in cooperation specifically aimed at expanding cooperation in strengthening the senior exchange and non-traditional security fields, etc.. In May last year by China on the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Viet Nam oil drilling and tension between the mid and also continued amid distrust of the large-scale reclamation of China, Viet Nam's balanced strategy. Impressed the strengthening of U.S.-Vietnam relations, such as for example, in June this year Carter Defense Secretary, in August, U.S. Secretary of State Kelly Viet Nam visited, also Viet Nam leader Nguyen-Fu-chung Communist Party Secretary in July this year the United States's first visit, talks about the issue of South China Sea. However,-11-Viet Nam accepted first visits by national President XI Jinping. XI President Nguyen & Phu Chong Secretary General and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung met with the consultations on the South China Sea issue and agreed on the economic cooperation between the mid. Philippines looks have strengthened the U.S. tilt among the ASEAN countries. Indeed, the Philippines and the United States signed with new military agreements last year to enhance the deployment of United States armed forces of the Philippines is a. Also, is fit to attend the APEC leaders ' meeting in Manila in President Obama's proposed measures strengthening maritime security for the United States Government of Southeast Asian countries, but in its most placed emphasis on in the Philippines. But in the new military agreement, former Senator Sue this agreement as unconstitutional, not necessarily strengthen the ties with the United States in the Philippines to accepted translation. You may also back large diplomatic stance in the future in the Philippines, but results of the presidential election is scheduled in May next year. To had trying to relativize the relationship with the United States, and under the previous Arroyo Government, Philippines rather trying to strengthen relations with China and should be recalled. 複数の大国のはざまにあって、旗幟（きし）を鮮明にはせず、それぞれの大国との関係を強化しバランスを維持することで、自らの自律性を確保するという戦略はＡＳＥＡＮ諸国のお家芸でもある。ASEAN諸国のこうした戦略の維持を可能にするのは、前述したように、米中間の決定的な対立、また米中間の「妥協」による中国の覇権の確立、いずれも可能性が低いことと、米中それぞれが一国のみで、相手を排除しつつ覇権を確立するほどには実は地域に置けるそれらの影響力が万全ではないことによる。いわば見かけよりも大国がすべての地域環境を決定づけられるような状況下にない中で、ASEAN諸国の動向はこの地域の安全保障環境のありようを大きく左右するだろう。4.ASEANを中心とする諸制度における信頼醸成の可能性 Under these circumstances, how they related to maritime security confidence-building mechanisms to make? Safe ARF or ADMM +, ASEAN can be considered as one possible use of ASEAN including ASEAN Maritime Forum A(AMF) based on the security community (ASC) action plan was officially launched in 2010 and System Center System. ARF was established in 1994, Asia-Pacific's first political security dialogue and cooperation framework, but more maritime security cooperation has been positioned as an important issue. The ADMM-plus in the form to invite ASEAN Defence Ministers meeting (ADMM) was newly established for the development of the ASEAN political-security community is the main third countries United States, China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand, Russia's Defence Minister, was launched in 2010. ADMM-plus is the system fully "actors" on the issue of South China Sea tensions. South East Asian countries (ASEAN) was held at the beginning of this year's 11 months in the 3rd meeting of expanded Defence Ministers meeting (ADMM-plus)

Kết quả (Anh) 2:

1. tensions of the South China Sea issue
maritime security is, including crackdown on crime that exceeds the pirates and border, such as terrorism measures, and of the conflict over the border on the waters relaxation, to respond to problems in a wide range of fields. Maritime security was one of the most important issues for the stability in East Asia of peace from the previous, in recent years, and that in particular they shake large East Asian international environment in conflict countries around the South China Sea territorial dispute is there. Conflict with tension around this problem is increasingly degree of tension than before. China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan, have made ​​claims of sovereignty in the same waters in a manner that each accompanied by effective control of the part of the island and reef. In particular China, the South China Sea area enclosed large in nine-dotted line has been claimed to be its territory.
Moreover that currently particularly problematic, is dared large reclamation in Spratly Islands by the Chinese, is that the product has been the construction of military facilities. Asia Marine transparency initiative in the United States of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) (Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative: AMTI) When is According to the announcement, which was carried out in May this year, landfill that China has been promoting is the estimated 900,000 square meters that. In addition, Vietnam not only in China but also I is said to have done the landfill. According to the AMTI, Vietnam also west London reef 65,000 square meters, 21,000 square meters of a sand reef, it is to have reclaimed a total of 86,000 square meters. However, in its scale, the difference between China is evident.
And this year October 27, the United States, the destroyer "Lassen" China of artificial islands and Vietnam and the Philippines was dared to "freedom of navigation strategy" that to sail within 12 nautical miles of reef that govern effective. The United States that China's artificial island waters not only of non-China dispute countries the Lassen was allowed to sail even near the reef that govern effective weakens the impression that the pair middle restraint, emphasize strategy the importance of "freedom of navigation" It was in order to show the position that is. However, if taking into account the size difference of the various activities at the landfill other of the South China Sea, the United States is the most vigilant, that there in China is obvious, China showed strong opposition to the strategy, "freedom of navigation" . Immediately after that held the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus (ADMM +), also a place of ASEAN summit meeting other ASEAN-related meetings were held in late November, the difference in the participating countries of conflict and position over the South China Sea issue in their place it is larger for defining the contents of the discussion. 2. During rice whether to determine all is whether the United States and China to any such behavior in the South China Sea, certainly the South China Sea issue and and it can not be denied to define large maritime security in this area. However, the two country alone establish hegemony in East Asia, including the South China Sea issue, the force which determines the security environment to their desired direction is more limited than is generally considered. First, therefore While in the US are each other to check with each other, it is difficult to reflect sufficiently reality claims of each country. In addition, China will certainly increase the economic strength, although military power also enhances, it is lacking in so-called soft power, opposition to China's increasing influence in neighboring countries also deep-rooted. Therefore, the relationship between China and neighboring countries is unstable. In addition, financial constraints are imposed on the commitment continued to the United States of Asia. If, if this two countries is critically conflict and around the other of conflict the South China Sea, and embarked in the form with the military power to either influence exclusion, become situation that armed conflict occurs, the other including the ASEAN countries The countries would not even if be. However, in the US it is unlikely that lead to such a decisive confrontation situation. when the United States has executed a strategy "freedom of navigation", even it was allowed to sail Lassen also within 12 nautical miles reef that effective control of non-Chinese countries, is because the United States is to avoid a decisive confrontation. Also, we were calling at Shanghai for this year in November the United States of vessels to perform a joint military training with the Chinese navy. The two countries I seen that to avoid the escalation of carefully conflict. On the contrary, "compromise" is established between the middle and the United States, for example the United States, even as a has become the de facto admit such a situation the territorial claims of China, and the influence on the issue of ASEAN countries It would would be subtracted. But this is, in particular part and of the ASEAN countries around the disputed countries, leading to a backlash from Japan facing a disagreement about the territorial dispute in the East China Sea. In addition, allowing the action that violates the clearly ocean international law, would significantly impair that the American soft power. In this way, decisive confrontation in the US, also the establishment of Sino-US compromise in such a way as to ignore the claims of other countries, are unlikely to achieve any of the scenarios. Under such circumstances, in fact, it is a trend of ASEAN countries that hold the key. If you look carefully, in the conflict over the South China Sea issue is intensifying, ASEAN countries, while strengthening the relationship between the medium rice, respectively, it is possible to balance keeping each the relationship between the two countries, their influence It has continued basically the strategy of ensuring. The Chinese continues to be reclaimed while receiving various criticisms is the fact. But this year in June, at a time when criticism of China is concentrated "landfill work was completed," it should be noted that it was trying to avoid a backlash as. Of course, actually it pointed out that not completed the reclamation of China have been made. If, however, intend to press ahead with the China landfill without having to worry about the international criticism at all, it would not have even such excuse. Therefore, the attitude of the United States and other countries opposed to merely the Chinese side of the action, China has a certain inhibitory effect on behavior that tries to unilaterally change the status quo. Without causing critically worsening relations with China, and also is not also follow completely in China, the South China Sea issue on it, claims armed non-exercise, peaceful resolution of disputes, the basic norms such as freedom of navigation continue it becomes an important strategy for moving the situation for ASEAN countries. 3. Continuation of ASEAN balance strategy appear to have been at the mercy of the great powers (mercy), ASEAN countries that have gained experience to survive by making full use of diplomacy in the Hazama is shrewd. ASEAN countries are working to strengthen relationships with both medium bay while watching the situation. Security relationship with the United States is deep was original ASEAN member countries from conventional five countries, are further strengthening of the relationship in recent years. For example, the United States and Indonesia, but military cooperation has been strengthened in Bali bombings since the 2002, the 2010 US incorporating the cooperation of the political and security fields Indonesia Comprehensive Partnership Agreement was signed. In 2015 it has agreed in further strengthening of defense cooperation between the Djoko new government and the United States. It enhanced the United States and from the point of view of even versus terrorism relationship with Malaysia, I have strengthened after it has been entered into the article services mutual agreement (ACSA) in May 2005, the defense cooperation in recent years further America. In May 2015 the South China Sea to the definitive joint military training in the US Malaysia was conducted. On the other hand, many of the ASEAN countries, since the 2000s, with China is promoting security cooperation. After the China ASEAN strategic partnership was signed in 2002, in the form that rely on this, individual security cooperation between the ASEAN countries and China the two countries has been progress. For example, Thailand, and China, has been allowed to develop security cooperation due to joint training and joint military exercises, mutual visits and educational exchanges of Inspirational exercises. Also Singapore and China, has been promoted cooperation with China and the start of the annual defense policy dialogue from January 2008. In addition, Indonesia and China, have entered into a strategic partnership in April 2005. China and even between Malaysia, it is already concluded a "Memorandum of Understanding on defense" in September 2005. In addition, China started to advocate of AIIB, is showing to neighboring countries the attitude to strengthen the infrastructure support. Infrastructure itself is not a security cooperation, it is widely understood and is also a means for achieving the "acceptance" of China's position on concerns of a wide range of fields it also contains. Vietnam among the ASEAN countries, and its geographical location, under the circumstances that faced a conflict with China over the South China Sea, interesting in that the United States also are taking the balance to strengthen cooperation with China. Vietnam and the United States has strengthened after the first US Vietnam defense dialogue and naval military exercise has been carried out in August 2010, the relationship with the United States. On the other hand, China and Vietnam conducted a defense consultation from 2005, it is allowed to develop cooperation and focus on the expansion of cooperation particularly in strengthening and non-traditional security field officials exchange. Last May, while Chuetsu is strained by oil drilling in China in the exclusive economic zone of Vietnam (EEZ), and also in that distrust is stronger for subsequent large-scale reclamation of China, the balance strategy of Vietnam is continued . For example, Carter US Defense Secretary in June this year, Kerry US Secretary of State visited Vietnam in August, also the first visit to the United States in Nguyen Huu Chung Communist Party General Secretary of Vietnam supreme leader this year in July , for example, by the consultations on the South China Sea issue, I was impressed the strengthening of the US Vietnam relations. However in November, Vietnam accepted the first visit by Xi Jinping Jintao. 習主seat met with Nguyen Huu Chung General Secretary and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, together with carrying out consultations on the South China Sea issue, it was agreed on economic cooperation between the Chuetsu. Philippines among the ASEAN countries, it seems to have strengthened against the US tilt. Indeed, the Philippines and the United States is in the already concluded a new military agreement that pillar deployment strengthening in the last year of the US military Philippines. In addition, President Obama to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting to suit to Manila entering, it has been launched to support measures to strengthen marine security for the United States government faction Southeast Asian countries, supported by the most emphasis is placed its is the Philippines. However, for new military agreements, such as the former senator to sue this agreement as unconstitutional, it is not necessarily strengthen relations with the United States has been accepted to let go in the Philippines. In addition, the results of the presidential election, which is scheduled for next year in May, there is a possibility of return increases the future of diplomatic stance of the Philippines. Under the previous Arroyo administration, Philippines to try to strengthen the relationship with China rather, it should be recalled that the relationship between the US and were trying relativity. Meet in Between multiple powers, banner (carboxymethyl) clear to without is the, the relationship between each of the major powers it is possible to maintain a strengthened balance, the strategy to ensure their autonomy of ASEAN countries It is also a specialty. And to allow the maintenance of these strategies of ASEAN countries, and as mentioned above, the US decisive confrontation of the middle, also "compromise" between the United States China's establishment of hegemony by, it is low any possibility, each in the US is only one country, enough to establish the hegemony while eliminating the opponent is actually definitive in the area is due to the fact their influence is not foolproof. So to speak in not under circumstances such as major powers are dictated all of the local environment than the apparent trend of ASEAN countries will be largely the Arisama of security environment in the region. Possibility of building confidence in institutions around the 4.ASEAN Under these circumstances, how we should go to create a mechanism of confidence-building involved in maritime security. A possible one possibility, ARF and ADMM +, ASEAN Security Community (ASC) action planning system that institutional center of the ASEAN, such as officially launched the ASEAN Maritime Forum A (AMF) in 2010 based on the which is the advantage. The ARF is the Asia Pacific Ocean's first framework of political security dialogue and cooperation, which was established in 1994, it has been positioned as an important issue the cooperation of the maritime security field than before. In addition, ADMM Plus, the newly established ASEAN defense ministers meeting as an organization to advance the construction of the ASEAN Political-Security Community (ADMM), the United States is the major countries outside the region, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand, in the form invite the Russian defense minister, it was launched in 2010. ADMM Plus is a system that "actors" for the South China Sea issue to be tense is everything. It held the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in early November this year (ASEAN) expanded defense ministers meeting in (ADMM Plus) third meeting

Kết quả (Anh) 3:

One of the tension of the South China Sea marine security crackdown on crime problems, cross border terrorism and piracy, and conflict around the border on the sea, to cope with the problems of a wide range of fields. The security of the ocean is the most important issue for the peace and stability in East Asia, there was one in recent years, especially in the countries of East Asia international environment has been greatly jolted by the territorial dispute in the South China Sea conflict.This problem over conflict and tension to the degree of tension than before. China, Brunei, Vietnam, and the Malaysia Philippines Taiwan, respectively, with some islands and reefs of effective control over territorial claims in the area has been carried out. Especially in China, in nine lines surrounding the South China Sea area by area. More specifically, at the current problems of the Spratly Islands by China to conduct large-scale landfillIn the construction of military facilities. The U.S. Center for strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Asia Transparency Initiative (Marine Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative: AMTI) in May this year, was published by the China promotion is 90 million square meters, and estimated the landfill. In addition, it is said that not only China and Vietnam were reclaimed. According to the AMTI, West London reefs 6 million square meters, VietnamSand cays 2 million square meters of landfill, and 8 million square meters. However, the scale, the difference between China's. And at this year on October 27, the U.S. Destroyer "Lassen" of China and Vietnam Philippines artificial island or reef to the effective control of 12 nautical miles in the navigation and freedom of navigation "adventure".America is not only the Chinese Lassen without artificial island off the reef sailing near the disputed countries other than China, effective control and check the impression that China was "to indicate the position of operation is to highlight the importance of" freedom of navigation. However, in the South China Sea to landfill or other activities in consideration of the difference of scale, warning us to the most obvious in China, "China" in the free operation of a strong rebound.ASEAN defense ministers' meeting was held after the plus (ADMM), and other related ASEAN ASEAN summit conference held in late November, the difference of the participating countries around the South China Sea and the conflict problem under the situation of increasing the content of those discussions field. 2 or the United States and China at all of China in the South China Sea to determine what action, it is certainly in the area of the South China Sea issue and to increase the provision of marine security can not be denied. However, theThe two countries in East Asia, and established the supremacy in the South China Sea issue, including the power to determine the direction of his security environment, limited than is commonly believed. First, check us in a mutually, therefore, it is difficult to fit their claims are enough to reflect the reality. In addition, China will definitely increase the economic power, military force, strengthen and missing in the so-called "soft power